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Phoenix housing market favors buyers. Here’s what analysts say

The Greater Phoenix housing market has been booming for the past two years, but now it is slowly cooling off. Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst at The Cromford Report, spoke about the condition of the real estate market, how iBuyers are affecting things and what to expect next Valley Partnership breakfast on Nov. 18.<br><br>

Looking at the Housing Opportunity Index reveals that the second quarter (Q2) of 2021 was a turning point in housing affordability in the Phoenix Metro. “We want a family making the median family income to be able to afford 50% to 75% of what’s [for sale],” Tamboer explains. “When [the index] went below 60% [in Q2 2021], we expected demand to come down and prices to stabilize. When that didn’t happen, that created a bigger red flag.”  <br><br>

In the region, as affordability of homes decreased, so did the percent of home sales that were meant to be primary residences. "Owner occupants got pushed out--they went from 80% [of home sales] to about 62% by this year's second quarter," Tamboer says. "[Then] we started seeing investors coming in."<br><br>

"False demand" occurs when investors purchase homes with the intention of flipping them or renting them out, rather than living in the home themselves. This activity can distort demand data, since it inserts another transaction between the original seller and the final buyer. Tamboer notes that this type of investment has been on the rise in Phoenix Metro, starting in Q2 2021.<br><br>

As prospects became more scarce in the housing market, companies funded by Wall Street still continued to buy and sell homes to one another. Unlike regular home buyers who are price sensitive and risk-averse, these businesses were mostly unphased by those factors, driving up prices as they competed for fewer properties.<br><br>

“Starting the second quarter [of 2021], [Opendoor] had more active for-sale listings than under contract. Generally, that’s not a good thing,” Tamboer explains. “Come April [2022], when mortgage rates went above 4.4%, we started to see Opendoor acquiring and holding onto more inventory than they would like. They didn’t have the demand there.” <br><br>

Mortgage rates in October were at 7.37%, but have lowered since then. By Q3 of 2022, the Housing Opportunity Index fell to 22.5% because mortgage rates had increased throughout that year; however, now with home loans being more expensive and taking away overall purchasing power from buyers, sellers are making interests buydowns or covering closing costs as an enticement to customers.<br><br>

When considering factors such as these, it's clear that buyers have more power than sellers in the current market. The Cromford Market Index - which tracks trends for supply and demand - now supports this fact by showing us that we're currently in a buyer's market.<br><br>

The Cromford Market Index is set to 100 when the market is balanced. If it falls below 90, prices will not rise as fast as inflation. This number reached its all-time low in 2007 at 26.5 before housing prices crashed. On the other hand, a score over 110 means that it's a seller's market where prices are rising faster than inflation rates.<br><br>

“As of Wednesday [Nov. 16], we have glided into a buyer’s market. We’re not plummeting,” Tamboer concludes. “We’re literally kissing a buyer’s market and people are panicking or asking, ‘Can I offer 50% below listing price now?’ No, it’s not that time yet. I’m still feeling pretty optimistic.” 

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